Story Points Do Not Depict Risk, Uncertainty, Capacity…

Experts allege that story points are a single unit representing various characteristics:

• Amount of work
• Complexity
• Risk
• Uncertainty
• Capacity
• Velocity

If it represents so much, how is there so much miscommunication and disappointment in story points? Let’s find out.

Story Points, originally, were only about time

There is a myth that story points are not about time. For those who created them, they were.

Story points came from an observation by a team of developers that, on average, their work took three days relative to their estimates. Originally called “ideal days,” the team changed the term to “story points” to encrypt the communication of estimates from non-developers, in particular project managers.

Story Points did not have a fixed conversion to days

To calculate the number of days, Story Points were multiplied by a variable called the “load factor”. It represented the ratio of actuals to estimates. If historical data was different, the load factor was different.

Story Points do not contain uncertainty

Certainty is represented by standard deviation. Lower certainty has higher standard deviation. Higher certainty has lower standard deviation. Story points do not communicate standard deviation, and likewise do not communicate uncertainty

Story Points do not contain risk

Risk is represented by probability. Smaller estimates have higher risk. Larger estimates have lower risk. Story Points do not communicate probability, and likewise do not communicate risk.

Story points do not contain complexity

Complexity affects the shape of the estimate. The less aligned an estimate is with normality, the more complex it is. Story points do not communicate normality, and likewise do not communicate complexity.

Story points don’t measure capacity

The less certain an estimate is, the larger the spread is between velocity and capacity. Story points tend to represent historical averages(velocity), not historical variability(capacity)

Story Points cannot align teams around an estimate

While experts pretend that story points communicate complexity, uncertainty, risk, and capacity, it represents none of those. That makes it nearly impossible to know what a team is aligning around, if anything, when using story points.

How To Story Point Less Badly

For the majority of estimates, use a relative “Three-point estimation”.

• Points to represent how low an effort may be
• Points for the likely effort
• Points for the how high of an effort may be

Now the team can start aligning honestly about the risk, uncertainty, capacity, velocity, or anything else story points were meant to represent.